Norwegian lung transplant waiting list shows discrepancies

An analysis of reports from Rikshospitalet, Norway's national lung transplant center, reveals two significant discrepancies in recent quarters. The number of new patients added to the waiting list has nearly halved, while a large share of patients who had previously been listed have disappeared.

SOURCES

June 5, 2026

Norwegian national hospital Rikshospitalet

Rikshospitalet Oslo, Photo; J. P. Fagerback. Wikipedia Commons

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Norway operates a publicly funded healthcare system, and lung transplant candidates are prioritized according to medical criteria regardless of social status. Crown Princess Mette-Marit, who is currently on the lung transplant waiting list, is therefore subject to the same prioritization framework as other patients awaiting transplantation.

Reporting reveals significant discrepancies

Norway operates a publicly funded healthcare system, and lung transplant candidates are prioritized according to medical criteria regardless of social status. Crown Princess Mette-Marit, who is currently on the lung transplant waiting list, is therefore subject to the same prioritization framework as other patients awaiting transplantation.

An analysis conducted by Society and Politics indicates that developments in Norway’s lung transplant waiting list differ markedly from both previous Norwegian reporting and trends observed in the other Nordic countries.

The analysis is based on publicly available data from Scandiatransplant, the Norwegian Organ Donation Foundation (Stiftelsen Organdonasjon), and Oslo University Hospital’s Rikshospitalet. The figures were compiled and compared with historical data dating back to 2020, covering 21 consecutive quarters of reporting.

Sharp decline in new patients

The review shows that the number of new patients added to the waiting list has fallen significantly over the past two quarters.

Compared with previous reporting periods, the intake of new patients has declined by approximately 46 percent. A comparable reduction does not appear in reports from the other Nordic countries during the same period.

The trend also represents discrepancy from the historical pattern observed in Norwegian data since 2020.

Large share of patients unaccounted for in cumulative figures

The second discrepancy concerns the relationship between the waiting-list population, newly listed patients, transplant recipients, and deaths.

At the end of the third quarter of 2025, Norway reported 10 patients on the lung transplant waiting list. By the end of the fourth quarter, that number had fallen to five. At the end of the first quarter of 2026, the waiting list had been further reduced to three patients.

When the waiting-list figures are reconciled against the number of transplants performed, deaths during the period, and calculated new listed patients, a cumulative discrepancy of 11 patients emerges. The published reports do not account for these patients. The discrepancy corresponds to 38 percent of the cumulative waiting-list population during the period under review.

Given the size of Norway’s lung transplant waiting list, the discrepancy is substantial and has no equivalent in the historical data examined back to 2020.

Stands out in a Nordic comparison

A comparison with Sweden, Denmark, and Finland shows that Norway is alone in exhibiting both a sharp reduction in newly listed patients and a discrepancy of this magnitude in waiting-list development.

While the other Nordic countries show temporary fluctuations in the number of new patients added to their waiting lists, the decline in Norway has persisted over a longer period. Likewise, discrepancies of this scale in cumulative patient figures are unusual both in size and duration.

Discrepancy does not align with hospital explanation

The discrepancy was identified by Society og Politics during research related to Crown Princess Mette-Marit’s lung transplantation.

Dr. Are Martin Holm, a senior physician at Rikshospitalet, said during a press conference today that the waiting list is currently small and that such fluctuations are natural and likely to adjust over time. As noted above, neither Norway’s historical data nor comparable statistics from other Nordic countries support fluctuations of this magnitude. There are also no other public statistics indicating that the number of people with lung disease declined correspondingly during the period in question.

A more plausible explanation appears to be that a lower proportion of patients were placed on the waiting list. Regardless, Dr. Holm’s statement does does not explain the 11 patients missing in the cumulative patient flow.

Society and Politics will continue to monitor the issue and will report further developments when data for the current and upcoming quarters become publicly available.