Risk if Trump Doesn’t Win the Peace Prize?
Donald Trump has negotiated a peace plan for Gaza, but it remains uncertain whether it will lead to a lasting agreement. He expects to receive this year’s Nobel Peace Prize, and Norway could face consequences if he does not.
October 5, 2025 | INTERNATIONAL POLITICS
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Norway is one of the most pro-Palestinian countries in the Western world, and many Norwegians have expressed their support for Palestine. For most Norwegians, this isn’t about religion but about Israel’s retaliation for the Hamas attack in October 2023, which many perceive as genocide. This has also created political challenges, especially regarding the Oil Fund’s investments in Israel and the scandal surrounding it in August. Many are disappointed that the government has not fully withdrawn Norwegian investments from Israel, and the political left has signaled continued pressure on the government after the parliamentary election in September.
Regardless of which side one sympathizes with, the hope for peace remains strong. U.S. President Donald Trump has now brokered a peace plan that has raised high expectations. Will it lead to peace, and if so, when? This coming Friday, the winner of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize will be announced. Normally, anyone who brokers peace in such a long and complex conflict would be the leading candidate for the prize. Donald Trump, who has been nominated, insists he deserves the award – even if no peace deal is reached in Gaza. Few experts agree, unless they are supporters of Trump. But what if Trump succeeds in bringing this peace process to completion – how would that change things?
Right now, there are few indications that Trump will receive the Peace Prize this year – unless considerations involving Norway play a role in the decision. Only a few days remain before the announcement. The Nobel Peace Prize Committee consists of five Norwegians appointed by the Storting (Norwegian Parliament). The committee is supposed to be politically independent and has a history of being so. In 2010, Yimin Liu Xiaobo received the Peace Prize for his long, non-violent struggle for fundamental human rights in China. This led to several years of diplomatic tension between Norway and China, during which Norwegian exports to China were severely affected by sanctions.
Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre claims that Norway has a good relationship with Donald Trump, but there is reason to question how good it really is. Norway is one of the few countries that has not entered into a trade and tariff agreement with the United States and must adhere to the original 15% import duty. Trump is probably seeking a deal for Norway where the U.S. imports critical minerals from Norway and U.S. exports military equipment to Norway. The government, however, plans to give the EU control over Norway’s mineral resources and recently opted to buy frigates from the U.K. instead of the U.S. Trump has not commented on this – perhaps because he wants the Nobel Peace Prize. He is even said to have brought up the Peace Prize in a phone call with the now Finance Minister, and former NATO Secretary-General, Jens Stoltenberg.
Given that Norway cannot defend itself without NATO, and the EU cannot defend either itself or Norway – as former NATO-chief Jens Stoltenberg acknowledges in his new book – it would be surprising if the Norwegian government were not in dialogue with the Nobel Committee on this matter, even though the committee is said to act independently.
SOURCES
Nobel Peace Prize
The 2025 Peace Prize will announce this year’s winner on Friday at 10:00The White House
Global Support for Peace in GazaBloomberg
Trump’s Aggressive Pursuit of the Nobel Peace PrizeNRK Helgemorgen
Trump’s Pressure for the Peace PrizeNobel Peace Prize
The 2009 Peace Prize: Barack Hussein ObamaNobel Peace Prize
The 2010 Peace Prize: Bi Yimin Liu XiaoboChr. Michelsen Institute
The Effect on Norway of the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize
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