The Norwegian government will not risk its own position
The negotiations over the 2026 state budget are intensifying. Difficult discussions are underway on issues such as oil policy and the Oil Fund (Wealth Fund). The government’s EU ambitions will nevertheless shape the process, and there is little reason to believe it will lead to a government crisis.
November 28, 2025 | NORWEGIAN POLITICS
Image by NTB/regjeringen.no
The Labour Party, governing as a minority, is dependent on securing a budget agreement to get the state budget passed in the Storting. Labour is negotiating with the Centre Party, the Socialist Left Party, the Green Party and the Red Party. On Thursday evening, Centre Party leader Vedum and Green Party leader Hermstad told NRK Kveldsnytt that the negotiations were difficult. On Friday morning, NRK reported that the parliamentary leaders had taken over the talks. Arild Hermstad of the Green Party stated that the parties remain far apart.
NRK reports that the Labour Party has proposed reallocating NOK 14 billion and increasing withdrawals from the Oil Fund (the Pension Fund, also called the Wealth Fund) by NOK 4.5 billion. The negotiations are said to be particularly challenging on issues related to oil policy and the Oil Fund’s investments in Israel. Read about the Oil Fund scandale leading up to this here.
Despite the wide gap between the parties, it is unlikely that Labour will fail to reach an agreement. A great deal is at stake for the governing party. The next parliamentary term will be decisive for the direction Norway takes in relation to the United States and the EU. As things stand, the Labour government has in practice deprioritised close cooperation with the United States and aligned itself more closely with the EU—despite the Norwegian population having rejected EU membership twice, with a majority still opposed. The government is also one of the few in the Western world that has not entered into a trade agreement with U.S. President Donald Trump. This leaves Norway in a vulnerable defence position, as the EU cannot defend Norway against Russia without the United States. The government is playing a high-risk game that could, in the worst case, lead Norway into a conflict without U.S. support.
Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store and Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg are unlikely to let the state budget stand in the way of their EU ambitions. Both are outspoken supporters of EU membership and pursue a strategy of keeping public EU debate suppressed, knowing it would not favour them—a strategy that has so far succeeded. A renewed EU debate would also likely expose divisions within the Labour Party. The strength of Store’s and Stoltenberg’s EU ambitions has just been demonstrated by their failure to deliver a proportional response after the EU imposed tariffs on ferroalloys. Several provisions of the EEA Agreement indicate that a response would have been justified and that these obligations should be tested legally.
The Centre Party, the Socialist Left Party, the Green Party and the Red Party have much to gain by holding their ground against the Labour Party. There is very little reason to believe Labour would allow the situation to escalate into a government crisis, given the ambitions of the country’s two top leaders. On the other hand, Labour could also seek support from the centre-right. In any case, the government’s ambitions lie abroad, not at home.
Update Friday evening at 20:00 (8:00 pm) - TV2 News
The Socialist Left Party and the Green Party have paused the negotiations and are awaiting greater concessions from the Labour Party.
Update Saturday morning - VG.no
The Green Party has not resumed negotiations, but the Socialist Left is back when negotiations resumed Saturday morning.
Update Saturday at 11:30 am- VG.no
The Green Party has now resumed the negotiations.
Update Saturday at 3:00 pm NRK News
The Green Party has broken out of the negotiations, meaning that the Labour Party does not currently have a majority for the budget.
Update Saturday at 7:00 pm from NRK News
The Socialist Left is withdrawing from the negotiations.
Update Saturday at 8:45 pm VG TV
Labour, the Centre Party and the Red Party have reached a budget agreement. It is not correct that the Socialist Left withdrew, as reported by several news outlets earlier, but they have not given their consent. Labour states that they will bring this budget to a vote on Friday regardless.
Update Sunday at 8:00 pm – NRK Dagsrevyen
The Green Party (MDG) has stated again today that they will not vote for the budget in the Storting. Both Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg and Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre have gone to ground and have not commented ont budget agreement at all.
Update Sunday at 11:00 pm - VG
Bergstø of the Socialist Left Party (SV) states that SV will not vote for the budget agreement.
Updated Monday at 12:00 pm - VG
Kirsti Bergstø of the Socialist Left Party (SV) has met with parliamentary leader Tonje Brenne of the Labour Party this morning and says she is now positive that they will reach a budget with a majority on Friday. Arild Hermstad of the Green Party (MDG) is scheduled to meet the Labour Party Monday afternoon.
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