Canada and the EU escalate the conflict with the US

The conflict over critical minerals

The Western conflict between old allies stems from the enormous need for critical minerals for new technology and modern defence equipment. China has held a near-monopoly on critical minerals, which is a threat to Western development of new technology, Western industry and Western defence security.

The EU has very few mineral deposits within its own territory. Through the mineral legislation Critical Raw Materials Act, the target is to be 35 per cent self-sufficient by 2030, the bulk of which is to come from recycling. The EU is already behind in establishing the production facilities required.

The US has established a minerals strategy that is moving quickly. It has invited allies into political partnerships to develop the supply chains for critical minerals. Pax Silica and FORGE are non-binding partnerships in which both Canada and the EU take part. The US, however, wants to form a binding Western minerals market with a guaranteed price floor. This would provide protection against bankruptcy that could draw investors to the mineral industry, which otherwise has to compete with low prices and price dumping from China. The EU and Canada have opposed a price floor. The US has therefore already imposed some tariffs and import bans on critical minerals to give the American mineral industry viable terms and investors. More will follow.

The US may withdraw from NATO

The most serious outcome is nevertheless a defence-related one. The US can withdraw from NATO, something the Trump administration has already considered several times during the current presidential term.

Europe's conventional defence capability rests on the American guarantee. Strategic airlift, tanker aircraft, satellite intelligence, air defence, the nuclear umbrella, as well as the supreme command in Europe are American. If the US withdraws from NATO, European countries are left with a force structure built around capabilities they do not themselves possess.

Russia, with China behind it, would then face a Europe without American deterrence from the Barents Sea to the Black Sea, where the Baltic states, Finland and Norway are most exposed. Putin is unlikely to let the opportunity pass.

In such a scenario, China would strengthen its position further against a Europe cut off from American technology, capital and energy. China is and remains a communist, human-rights-violating one-party dictatorship that free democracies should fear.