Scenario for Europe if the United States leaves NATO
A NATO without the United States would trigger the most severe security crisis in Europe since the Second World War, leading to major changes across the continent.
January 14, 2026 | INTERNATIONAL POLITICS
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NATO crisis as a result of the Greenland conflict
Today, Greenland’s and Denmark’s foreign ministers, Motzfeldt and Rasmussen, are meeting with US Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Rubio for talks on Greenland’s future. Yesterday, Greenland made it clear that it will neither be bought nor become American citizens, and that it instead chooses Denmark, the EU, and NATO over the United States.
The statements from Greenland are more striking than one might initially think. The dominant party in NATO is the United States; it possesses a war machine stronger than all the other members combined. European leaders unfortunately tend to give the impression that Europe has real defensive capability, but this is not the case—if it were, the war in Ukraine would have ended long ago.
Europe's mineral shortage gives the US power
It is not possible for Europe to build a real, solid, and lasting defence capability because of a lack of minerals on the European continent, read more here. The United States exercises the right of the strongest in geopolitics, and European leaders have difficulty coming to terms with this. This could become very dangerous for the European population.
In its National Security Strategy, the United States asserts itself as the power holder in the Western Hemisphere. According to the strategy, this means it will actively intervene to secure trade, natural resources, democracy, and peace on the American continent, read more here. This is the background for why the United States seeks to bring Greenland under American power, without it being clear how this is to be done.
The attack on Venezuela is relevant
At the beginning of this year, the United States carried out an operation against Venezuela in which President Maduro was arrested and brought to the United States on criminal charges. Trump stated this week that he is the temporary president of Venezuela, and tomorrow he will meet Nobel Peace Prize laureate and Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado for talks. It is unclear whether the United States will actually introduce democracy in Venezuela; many claim US performs imperialism. Greenland is placed in the same category as Venezuela due to its location on the American continent.
The US supports countries that share the vision for the Western Hemisphere
As for the European continent, the United States invites European countries into cooperation on the Western Hemisphere. In the strategy, the US administration describes that it will support countries that share the American vision for the Western Hemisphere, and that it will support political parties and politicians who promote this view.
The United States does not wish to deal with the European Union, but instead engages with each country individually. This is important information to take into account.
Scenarios for Europe if the US withdraws from NATO
1. Russia attacks immediately
Russia may, with support from China, attack one or more European countries very soon if the US withdraws from NATO.
If the country in question is not a NATO member, it is unlikely that NATO, for reasons of resources, will be able to give it sufficient military support. In such a situation China would cut off supplies of critical minerals to European weapons production. As for any support from the US to the country in question, this would in that case be conditional, as described in points 2 and 3.
If Russia attacks a NATO country, NATO will have to defend it under Article 5. However, NATO will only have the resources for a short war, since China will cut off mineral supplies. NATO may then have to give up Russian-occupied territory in order to halt a further invasion of Europe. Central Europe will as a result find Russia's border closer. Independently of NATO, it is likely that the US may come to the aid of individual countries on certain conditions, as described in points 2 and 3.
2. European countries that voluntarily enter into individual trade and defence agreements with the US
As mentioned above, under the national security strategy the US will provide military support to those countries that have, or enter into, comprehensive trade agreements and arms agreements with the US. Furthermore, the country must share the American vision for the Western Hemisphere, where immigration is the most challenging point in relation to current European policy.
In this scenario, European countries that are not part of the EU will have the advantage of being able to take a position on the situation quickly. Certain countries with EU membership may find it necessary to give immediate notice of withdrawal from the EU in order to conclude agreements with the US; possible countries could be Poland, Hungary and Italy.
Countries that enter into a defence agreement with the US will have military security against attack from Russia. The US is unlikely to demand that the country in question renounce its NATO membership, but will conclude agreements independently of NATO unless NATO declares the US a security threat.
In this way the US can push the EU entirely out of the military balance of power.
3. European countries that do not enter into individual trade and defence agreements with the United States
If a country is attacked by Russia without having an individual agreement with the US, the country will immediately have to take a position on a trade and arms agreement with the US in exchange for military support.
Such support will come with substantial demands from the US, which may involve giving up sovereignty.
Nor is it impossible to imagine that the US will intervene on its own initiative to secure a country if it is of strategic importance. This may be particularly relevant for Iceland and Norway, including Svalbard, which are strategically located in the Arctic zone that the US has declared a matter of national security.
4. Political pressure from the United States
As described in the American security strategy, the US will support political parties and politicians who share its vision of the Western Hemisphere.
Independently of the scenarios above, the US will actively influence European politics. This may contribute to increased polarisation in Europe, which could lead to internal conflicts.
If the US succeeds, it may mean that European politics will shift from liberalism to conservatism. That would in turn lead to less immigration and the cultivation of European culture; further, it would lead to protectionism that will shift European trade from the world market to a US-controlled market in the Western Hemisphere.
5. The EU and/or European countries ally themselves with China
Since Europe depends on critical minerals from China for weapons production, it is possible that individual countries or the EU will align themselves more closely with China, both to secure critical minerals for industry and weapons, and also to protect themselves against attack from Russia.
However, this would entail new risk, since China is a human rights-violating, communist one-party dictatorship. It could also trigger a third world war.
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SOURCES
White House
U.S. National Security StrategyReuters
Denmark and Greenland face Vance at high-stakes meetingThe Guardian
Greenland and Denmark unite against US advances before White House talksBBC
Trump to meet Venezuelan opposition leader Machado at the White HouseNewsweek
Donald Trump Post Shows Him as ‘Acting President of Venezuela’
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