Exaggerated Norwegian tariff fear
Norwegian exports to the US make up a small share, while Europe is the most important market. In the geopolitical trade war, Norwegian energy and mineral resources are in high demand, and they give Norway a far stronger negotiating position than Stoltenberg and Store suggest.
April 1, 2025
Finance Minister Stoltenberg and Prime Minister Store, Norway, photo: NTB/Regjeringen.no
Claims Norway is at the back of the queue
According to VG, Jonas Gahr Store fears Norway will end up at the back of the queue of countries negotiating with the US. The US President is expected to present his comprehensive tariff plan on Wednesday. Jens Stoltenberg states that hardly any country will be hit harder than Norway in a trade war. That sounds alarming, but it depends to a large degree on the policy the government pursues. They claim the solution is to align more closely with the EU, but that is not necessarily correct.
Norwegian exports
Norwegian exports go mainly to the United Kingdom and Europe — oil, gas and fish. To the US Norway export mostly fish.
In 2024, Norway's largest customers were the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark. Exports to Europe totalled 1,572M last year, which accounts for 87 per cent of Norwegian exports, which come to 1,802M in total. Norway exported 62M to the US last year, amounting to 3.5 per cent of Norwegian exports. Imports from the US came to 83M — which means the trade balance runs in the US's favour. That is a good bargaining card in itself.
Will those few per cent really constitute any trade threat to Norway? Are Store and Stoltenberg promoting more fear than there is basis for with their statements?
Natural resources give Norway leverage
Norway has enormous natural resources, minerals among them. Europe's largest deposits of rare earths were found at Fensfeltet in Telemark in the summer of 2024. Never before have Norwegian resources been so sought after and so important as now. Norway has resources that both the US and Europe want; there is no reason for Norway to stand at the back of the queue. Key countries in Europe depend on electricity, oil, gas and fish from Norway, and in future they will also need minerals for car production and new technology.
The resources give Norway leverage — something Stoltenberg and Store do not appear to be taking on board. The resources give Norway not only economic power, but contribute directly to military security, since they are essential to weapons production.
Right now there is more reason to be concerned about the government's strategy than about higher tariffs on exports to the US.
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