This week shows how Trump plans to exercise his power over the EU
Trump is forcing the EU into decisive choices by exploiting its lack of critical minerals. Europe’s security depends on US support, yet the EU shows resistance that could lead to war.
September 28, 2025 | INTERNATIONAL POLITICS
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Trump is putting considerable pressure on the EU
On Wednesday, Reuters reported that China is directly involved in the production of drones for Russia. It had previously been revealed that China supplies critical minerals and components to Russian weapons production while restricting deliveries to Western weapons production, read more. In mid-September, Trump asked the EU to stop buying Russian oil and gas as it contributes to financing the war against Ukraine. This was one of the topics Trump addressed in his speech to the UN on Tuesday. In her Wednesday speech, Ursula von der Leyen announced that purchases of Russian oil and gas would end by the New Year.
It is less known that Trump at the same time asked the EU to impose punitive tariffs on goods from China and India to sanction their purchases of oil and gas from Russia, read more. The EU has not commented on Trump’s demands, referring to confidentiality, but on Friday it became known that the EU has partly accommodated Trump by imposing tariffs on steel from China. The EU, however, denies any link to Trump’s demands and claims instead that it is a response to global steel overproduction.
A dilemma for the EU
The EU is in a very difficult situation as there are not enough mineral resources on the European continent for the EU to produce enough weapons for its own defense. About 80% of the EU’s mineral supplies come from China. Ukraine has large amounts of mineral resources by European standards. Much of this however lies in territories occupied by Russia. Trump has secured rights to 50% of Ukraine’s mineral resources and earlier this spring received an offer from Putin of minerals from the occupied territories. Since realizing that Putin is not interested in peace, Trump has stepped up his support for Ukraine to safeguard America’s mineral interests.
In his UN speech, Trump promised weapons deliveries from the USA but he has not promised that the USA will participate with forces in a war against Russia. The situation is therefore that he promises deliveries of military equipment that the USA has sold to NATO countries but he does not promise soldiers. We must in this scenario take into account that Russia is allied with both China and North Korea.
Trump expects loyalty
Trump expects loyalty from the EU, but resistance from Brussels has strained the relationship. The Norwegian Labour Party government has chosen to follow the EU and has thereby opted out of a trade agreement with the USA, which would have included mineral deliveries to the USA and purchases of American military equipment and reduced the imposed tariff of 15%. In August it became known that Norway chose to buy frigates from the United Kingdom rather than the USA.The consequences extend far beyond tariffs; it directly affects Norwegian defense capability. You can read more about the critical mineral situation and Norwegian defense security here.
If Russia attacks an EU country, the EU will have no choice but to immediately meet the demands Trump sets. It may in fact be the case that Trump wants a confrontation between Russia and the EU because it serves his goal of taking world dominance back from China. A war will lead to China, which is allied with Russia, stopping mineral deliveries to the EU. This benefits the USA because the EU then becomes completely dependent on them.
If Russia attacks Denmark, it could lead to a direct confrontation over the mineral resources in Greenland. Russia could however also choose to attack Svalbard and Norway, which is not an EU member. That would give Russia both control over the eastern part of the Atlantic Ocean and access to Norwegian natural resources such as minerals, oil and gas. This would significantly weaken the EU.
Norwegian authorities are downplaying the threat
Norwegian authorities are far more reluctant to share information about drone activity, cyberattacks and military threats than other European authorities have been. According to TV 2 News, this is because the Labour Party government does not want to create fear. This is part of the strategy the Labour Party government has pursued after the Centre Party left the government and Jens Stoltenberg returned as Minister of Finance. The government has omitted to inform the population about how serious the situation is for Norway or how they think we will be able to defend ourselves without a good relationship with the USA. They themselves however claim that Norway has a good relationship with the USA but there is reason to question this. Trump, for his part, is currently keeping a low profile towards Norway publicly, probably because he wants the Nobel Peace Prize. On Tuesday, Støre, in the strongest terms yet, distanced himself from Trump’s speech at the UN.
On Saturday, it became known that American P-8 surveillance aircraft are placed on Oslo Airport Gardermoen after drone incidents in Europe, read more. This may create a false sense of security. Norwegians should recognize that Trump prioritizes American interests, something he has made clear time and again. Furthermore, the population must realize that the EU is not capable of defending either itself or Norway. If Russia attacks Norway, we will have to accept all the demands Trump will set. The Labour Party government abandoned the chance to secure a balanced agreement with the USA in advance, as the United Kingdom successfully did.
On Saturday, Russia made it clear that they would respond to both sanctions and any shooting down of Russian drones over EU airspace.
SOURCES
Reuters
Chinese drone experts worked with sanctioned Russian arms makerHandelsblatt / Reuters
EU plans 25–50% tariffs on Chinese steel productsAtlantic Council
The EU considers countermeasures against China and India but will not bend to Trump’s demandsPolitico
EU introduces new sanctions against Russia targeting energy, banks and cryptocurrencyReuters
Russia warns NATO and the EU that any aggression will be met with a decisive responseNRK
Russia warns NATO that any attack will be met with a responseVG
Reactions following Donald Trump’s speech at the United NationsCIRSD Horizons
Analysis of “The Mineral Wars”
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