July 2026 could be defining for the relationship between U.S. and EU

Norway central to the minerals conflict

Greenland is well known as part of the conflict between the U.S. and the EU, but it is less known that Norway also plays a central role. Norway has the largest rare earth deposits in Europe and the third-largest in the world after China and Brazil. Put simply, the U.S. and the EU are competing for access to Norway's mineral resources.

On April 18, Society and Politics published an in-depth article on how the U.S. has positioned itself strategically and legally for a conflict with the EU this summer, and how that conflict implicates Norway, read more.

Key dates in July

Several dates of major importance fall in July, not only for the future relationship between the EU and the U.S., but also for Greenland’s and Norway's future as sovereign states.

July 4

Trump's deadline for the EU to implement the Turnberry Agreement. If the agreement is not considered fulfilled, the U.S. will impose a 25 percent tariff on European cars under Section 232.

July 7

A Section 301 hearing on forced labor will be held in Washington. The U.S. has identified 60 countries that either do not prohibit or do not effectively enforce a ban on imports of goods produced with forced labor and is considering additional tariffs ranging from 10 to 12.5 percent depending on each country's practices. Norway could face a tariff of 12.5 percent.

The Section 301 tariff authority is intended to provide a permanent legal basis for tariffs and replace the temporary Section 122 tariffs, which expire on July 24. More information follows below.

July 10

Meeting of the EEA Joint Committee. This is relevant because Norwegian minerals are central to the conflict between the EU and the U.S. As early as March 2025, Norway's Labour government decided to implement the EU's Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) into Norwegian law. The EU is placing significant pressure on the EEA and Norway to implement the legislation so that the EU can secure control over Norwegian mineral resources, get the details here.

If the EEA Joint Committee decides to incorporate the CRMA into the EEA Agreement, the legal act cannot be implemented without a decision by the Norwegian Parliament, pursuant to Article 26, second paragraph, of the Norwegian Constitution.

On June 2, the Norwegian Parliament adopted five resolutions on Norwegian minerals policy. Resolution 851 asks the government to consider how Norway should contribute to achieving the objectives of the EU's CRMA Regulation—including recycling, circular value chains and mapping—but the resolution concerns the objectives themselves, not incorporation into the EEA Agreement. The remaining resolutions concern how the government should ensure ownership control in licensing for critical minerals, examine the establishment of a state-owned minerals company or minerals fund, and map Norway's minerals value chain.

July 13

In January this year, Trump signed Presidential Proclamation 11001, directing the administration to negotiate minerals agreements and assess minimum price mechanisms within 180 days. That deadline expires on July 13.

Administration officials are then required to submit a status report to Trump. If the negotiations have not produced results by the deadline, the proclamation authorizes tariffs, import restrictions and minimum prices.

July 24

When Trump launched his "Liberation Day" tariffs on April 2, 2025, they were based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). On February 20 this year, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the IEEPA does not authorize tariffs. On the same day, Trump replaced that legal basis with Section 122, a temporary authority that expires after 150 days—on July 24. Congress could extend it, but this is considered unlikely. It is therefore expected to be replaced by the permanent authority provided under Section 301.

The tariff that first becomes relevant under the section in question relates to forced labour; later this year, a tariff relating to excess capacity may also come into play.

On forced labour, both the EU and Norway are among the 60 economies under investigation that may be hit by tariffs under the new Section 301 authority. The EU would in that case face 10 per cent and Norway 12.5 per cent, since the former has concluded a trade agreement while the latter has not.

With regard to forced labor, both the EU and Norway are among the 60 economies under investigation and could become subject to tariffs under the new Section 301 authority. In that case, the EU would face a tariff of 10 percent, while Norway would face a tariff of 12.5 percent.

Regarding industrial overcapacity, 16 economies are under investigation, including the EU and Norway. Norway's tariff exposure is based on oil exports, seafood and the Government Pension Fund Global, but overcapacity also includes mineral-related sectors such as batteries, critical minerals and metals. This means Norway could face tariffs from July 24 while also being exposed to tariffs once Norwegian critical minerals enter production. Possible tariff rates related to industrial overcapacity have not yet been announced.

Norway still has the opportunity to conclude a trade agreement with the Trump administration. The government has never explained why such an agreement was not concluded before the 31 July deadline last year, or why it has still not been concluded.