US considers withdrawing troops from NATO countries

Access to Critical Minerals and Rare Earths as a Key Factor

At the beginning of this year there was a crisis in NATO as a result of the Greenland conflict, but it subsided after the Munich Security Conference in February. This was because the EU (including Norway) gave commitments to the US on cooperation on critical minerals and rare earths, resources that are decisive both for ordinary industry and for the defence industry. This understanding was highlighted by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte during the security conference. The EU (including Norway) halted mineral cooperation with the US early last year as a result of the trade war triggered by Donald Trump. Before that, memoranda of understanding had recently been concluded with the Biden administration. The Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store had even promised the US mineral supplies in his letter of congratulations to Donald Trump when the latter won the presidential election in November 2024.

The ongoing mineral negotiations remain difficult. One point of contention is that the US demands that minerals for car batteries be sourced from an allied country, while the EU depends on supplies from China. The US accuses the EU of not investing enough in Western mineral projects to enable Europe to reduce its dependence on China.

After the War in Iran, the US Controls Transport Routes in the Middle East

It may be difficult to see what the US has achieved with the war in Iran, but it has achieved something that is likely far more significant for both the US and the EU than is commonly perceived. After the war, Europe has no form of influence over the Middle East. This is highly concerning, as the fastest and cheapest transport route from China and Asia is now controlled 100 percent by the United States. When this is linked to Europe’s dependence on minerals from China for weapons production, it becomes serious. This is so significant for global power dynamics that it may have been the sole objective of the US administration in the war against Iran: to prevent Iran, through nuclear weapons, from controlling transport routes, and to secure US control. Furthermore, the US assesses that Europe has effectively removed itself from the equation by not contributing to the defense of transport routes on which it itself depends.